The first doubt about 2017 El Niño

Scientists in Piura, Peru, didn't have a consensus about a sudden rainy season. 

By Nelson Peñaherrera  

COLÁN, Peru - Like every Southern Summer (December 21^st to March 20^th), thousands come to the beach just for having fun. But unlike every Southern Summer, sea water is warmer, more transparent than usual . In fact, Peruvian Sea is usually plenty of plankton, a kind of soup formed by animal and vegetal microorganisms those feed little fishes, tehn big fishes, birds and mammals. That explains the marine biodiversity. The cause could be linked to cool water pulled by Humboldt's Current coming from Antarctica. But this marine soup is not currently saltier than usual. warm, transparent, regular. Are all this related?

I've never surfed on a bodyboard,so I began in Colán, about 55 km to the West of Piura City,  the first weekend of 2017. Physics taught me that if I pull my body forward, then I'll get the other side in a straight line. But if I don't use my feet to move ahead, then I arrive to a point some meters to the south in the rim. Speaking in trigonometry terms, I am inside a triangle rectangle, and I am surfing over the hypotenuse. Is that the current? Which one?

We know that Humboldt's Current flows from south to North and Equatorial Current (a.k.a. El Niño) flows from North to South. If my bodyboard ended right to the South, was el Niño's Current that carried me not in a plain line but a diagonal one? If this thinking is correct, then PiuraDepartment is in troubles: strong rains, intense wet heat... just the two weather conditions we were experiencing beginning 2017.

In Callao, Peruvian central coast, El Niño Phenomenon National Survey (ENFEN as in Spanish) monitors El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño is a Spanish word what means The Boy or The Male Child. It was given by Piura's fishermen to the sea water warming-up happening around Christmas, when Catholic tradition establishes Jesus Christ was born. It coincides to Southern Summer beginning.

According to an ENFEN official report released on February 2^nd, 2017, all sea water characteristics I experienced in Colán only could mean an el Niño event, boosted by a Kelvin Wave in front of Peruvian coast that unusually did not come from Australia. A Piura City-based meteorologist told FACTORTIERRA that wave appeared and moved too fast that only was detected when atmosphere in Peruvian coast was already altered. "It's product of prevision lack," he commented.

In fact, nobody explained clearly what and how it started but its effects. Sea water raised from 21,5 Celsius, the Summer average, to 27 Celsius. It accelerated evaporation, then clouds were pushed by the wind, and strong to moderate rains fell in Peruvian Central in mid-January, and Peruvian Northern ending January.

Arequipa, Ica and Lima cities, in Peruvian Southern and Central coast, were assaulted by huaycos [pronounce "wykos"], a Quechuan word describing a little slide of mud, rock and water originated at the mountains top saturated by humidity, losing stability. Their raging power is not based in volume but speed, and their lanes are rivers and creeks courses, not matter if they are dry.

In Peruvian Northern, the story is different - floods caused by extraordinary rains. A point in favor is the soil was suffering from drought, so everytime it rains, water ponds get dry or evaporated. However, this picture could stop as places like Piura low pressure area was having much rain than usual. This is located just in the middle of the territory rimming Andean Range. A remarkable landmark is Chulucanas City, which had until 18 cm of precipitation. "We experience a real deluge every day," a local FACTORTIERRA contributing producer commented.

Lima-based National Service of Meteorology and Hydrology (SENAMHI as in Spanish) warned we had to expect until 30 cm of rain during the next weeks.

A local El Niño
ENFEN belief there were all the conditions for an El Niño local event and 'local' here means Peruvian coast, more specific Piura Department, one of the critic spots in the world where ENSO is largely studied. . Peruvian scientists named it Coastal el Niño, and was rated as weak with many chances to gain power as the weeks were passing on. At least this little variation put officials from surveillance mode to alert mode, and had the scientists in Piura from pause to play. There was not a consensus, actually.

University of Piura's Rodolfo Rodríguez, one of the tireless ENSO's scholars, opined ENFFEN diagnosis was premature because it was necessary having 3 months of sea water warming-ups, and it seemed to have started in mid-January. National University of Piura's School of Fishing engineering director Rodolfo García Martínez agreed, however he warned some fish scarce along Piura because species were migrating where coolest water was available. However, in this point, a FACTORTIERRA editor observed since August 2016, it was possible to find warm sea water species at the market.

Anyway, Radio Cutivalú quoted that sea surface temperature in Sechura Bay was 28,5 Celsius, what killed shellfish reserves. An official measure reported 31 Celsius. Was not this really El Niño? National University of Piura's School of Physics meteorologist Manuel Alejandro More affirmed was an el Niño event, indeed, based on a U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s numeric definition: 3 consecutive ascendent anomalies more than 0,5 Celsius among a month. The scientist assured NOAA reported a first raising in December 2016, then in January 2017, and finally beginning February.

He added it is not necessary the whole Equatorial Pacific gets warm to forecast el Niño, since scientific community divided it in 4 zones. Peru has 'assigned' 1 and 2 zones, where anomalies were apparently happening. "This must not be discussed because it is clear it is an El Niño event and it is developing in 1+2 area," the scientist said in a statement.

FACEBOOK: Check out more photos of people facing rains in Chulucanas, Peru.

Inclusive, ENFEN sayd plankton was displaced from Peruvian sea due to entering of equatorial water. As it was warmer, emerging of cool water was impossible, just where microorganisms are concentrated. All this explained why Colán sea water was warm, transparent, regular, why flowed from North to South, and why Piura probably would have less fish.

SENAMHI and ENFEN warned strong rains between February last week and March first week, but the usual in Piura is a rainy March. This time, both agencies were sure it was triggered by a Kelvin Wave what was flowing from Central Equatorial Pacific. Scientists say we have to assume this as usual as the climate change is an impossible reality to deny. Piura is the hard proof of that.

With reports of El Regional de Piura and Radio Cutivalú. Photographs by Roberto Saavedra for La República, except the satellite graphic provided by SENAMHI. © 2017 Asociación Civil Factor Tierra. All Rights Reserved.